USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the seventh successive day, trading around 1.4000 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair has depreciated as the US Dollar (USD) struggles under pressure from mounting doubts regarding the sustainability of the AI trade. Investor confidence weakened after quarterly earnings reports from several megacap technology companies failed to meet expectations.
Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven broader market risk aversion. Reports indicating that the US and Israel are preparing additional military strikes against Iran following the upcoming midterm elections have intensified safe-haven demand, bolstering both the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc against the Greenback.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have indicated little urgency to accelerate policy tightening. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently expressed optimism regarding the underlying strength of the US economy but refrained from signaling whether additional interest rate hikes would be required. Despite this measured guidance, market participants utilizing the CME FedWatch Tool currently price in a 92.8% probability of a rate increase at the upcoming October 27–28 policy meeting.
The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices. WTI price remains near its highest level in five weeks, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply risks in the Middle East.
Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen recently claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, as well as deadly strikes targeting an oil field and an airport in the world’s largest crude oil exporter.
Heightening concerns further, the US and Israeli militaries have reportedly drawn up plans for potential renewed attacks against Iran after next month’s midterm elections, with Iran’s energy infrastructure likely serving as a key target. Meanwhile, in Europe, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian oil refineries amid a US-Russia agreement involving diesel supplies.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
