Author: Robert Jessi

USD The dollar ended Thursday softer despite data that should have supported it. Q3 GDP rose at a 3.4% annualised pace against a 3.2% consensus, September PCE printed 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY with core steady at 3.1%, and initial claims fell to 194k, the lowest since July. None of this mattered against a tech-led equity sell-off, however, after ’s near-13% drop on AI spending worries, pushing investors into Treasuries. Two-year yields fell 6bp, 10-year yields slipped back below 5%, and December hike odds eased to around 75%, pushing the to just under 102. Still, with growth and core inflation…

The shape of the relative-value story is changing.Takeaways• The dollar still has a solid macro floor, but the easy part of the long-USD trade may be behind us if the Fed really is one-and-done in December. • The ECB kept another hike firmly in play, leaving the euro with a cleaner near-term rate backdrop than it had going into the meeting. • The BoJ’s message was the bigger structural shift: inflation is effectively at target, policy remains below neutral and December now looks increasingly live for another hike. • The US midterms are beginning to matter at the margin, mainly…

Canadian Dollar Forecast: ING Sees Oil Risk Behind 1.42 USD/CAD Call ING sees limited Canadian Dollar gains against the US Dollar as its oil outlook challenges expectations of sustained Bank of Canada tightening. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate was trading at 1.3985 on Thursday, little changed on the day and below 1.40 after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates. Latest-Exchange Rates: Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.39694 (-0.13%) Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.8723 (+0.06%) Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.562662 (-0.09%) ING still expects the pair to recover to 1.42 at end-2026, retaining a forecast…

A view of the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada May 8, 2025. REUTERS/Blair Gable/ File Photo The Canadian dollar edged higher against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, marking its first rate increase in more than three years, according to the reported announcement.The decision comes amid renewed inflationary pressures, driven largely by rising energy prices. Policymakers are increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could spread across the economy, pushing up prices in a broader range of goods and services.Inflation Risks Put Monetary Policy Back…

ETFs Should Canadian investors break up with their bond ETFs? Since the 2022 bond bloodbath, investors have questioned bond ETFs. Learn how stock-bond correlations, diversification benefits and alternative ETF…

Asia stocks tumble as AI spending concerns deepen; BOJ holds rates

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes.The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 4.3% YoY in September from 4.0% in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 4.2%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the price pressures the RBA had been worried about were starting to emerge.This report has boosted the…

About three more Federal Reserve hikes are already priced in, and the central banks behind the Euro, Pound, Yen and Loonie are raising rates or about to. That leaves the US Dollar Index with little to gain if the Fed keeps leaning toward higher rates.The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed more than 3% in the month after the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates on September 16, and it hasn’t made a new high since October 14. It hit that high on the day US inflation came in at 3.7% and then gave the spike back, slipping after a Fed meeting…

The Pound-Canadian Dollar could remain under pressure if the BoC delivers a hawkish rate hike, while the UK Budget may drive fresh Sterling volatility. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate was placed on the defensive last week amid a spike in global oil prices. At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate traded at CA$1.8704. Down roughly 0.7% from the start of last week’s session. Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.873736 (-0.17%) Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.569255 (-0.13%) Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40073 (+0.03%) DAILY RECAP: The Canadian dollar (CAD) enjoyed…

USD/CAD attracts buyers during American trading hours on Thursday as traders digest the latest US economic data, keeping hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations intact and supporting the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4007, recovering from an intraday low of 1.3970.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.25, recovering some of the previous day’s losses.The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.5% MoM in September, up from 0.3% in August, while annual inflation climbed to 3.6% from 3.4%. Both readings…