Author: Robert Jessi

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USD The dollar shrugged off softer US data yesterday, with the DXY index climbing back above 99.6 as safe-haven demand and rising Treasury yields dominated. The August ISM manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6 from 55.6, below the 55.2 expected, with the employment sub-index cooling to 51.2, while July JOLTS job openings of 7.27m undershot consensus. Ordinarily, this mix would weigh on the greenback, but fresh US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz pushed above $90, lifted toward 4.8%, and dragged the S&P 500 down 0.7%, hardly a risk-positive backdrop. Overnight, that theme has continued, with Iran firing…

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Gold extends its decline on Wednesday, facing enormous pressure due to surging United States (US) Treasury Yields and rising oil prices.US 10-year bond yields hit fresh almost three-year highIn Asian trade on Wednesday, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.Higher yields on interest-bearing assets result in diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.Strategists at BNY see “fiscal concerns and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) credibility” as the key culprits behind the latest move in long-dated US yields. They also highlighted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech…

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USD/CAD has staged a rebound from recent lows near 1.3730 as markets digest a steady policy stance from the Bank of Canada (BoC) amid renewed United States (US)-Canada trade friction. While Canada’s headline inflation ticked up to 3.0% in July, core CPI remains firmly anchored at 1.9%, allowing BoC Governor Tiff Macklem to keep the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, emerging tariff tensions with the US and shifting rate differentials are creating a tug-of-war between strong overhead technical resistance and downside economic risks for the Canadian Dollar.USD/CAD daily chartTechnical resistance at 1.3990/1.4030 tests USD/CAD reboundAccording to strategists at…

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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7829 compared to the previous day’s fix of 6.7809 and 6.7238 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. The PBoC is owned by the state of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese…

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The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3510 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). All eyes will be on the US August jobs report later on Friday. CNBC reported that the US and Iran traded a new round of attacks Tuesday, with American forces striking Iranian targets around the critical waterway and Tehran saying it had launched a retaliatory operation targeting US interests across the region.US President Donald Trump said the strikes were in retaliation for…

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Limited downside ahead for the Canadian Dollar, but the US-Canada rate gap should keep USD/CAD supported below 1.40 say analysts. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate traded around 1.3902 on Tuesday, recovering from an overnight low near 1.3846. Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar continues to hold up well despite volatile Fed expectations and renewed trade uncertainty. “CAD resilience in the face of volatile Fed expectations and the latest round of trade uncertainty is impressive and reaffirms our view that there is limited downside potential in the CAD currently.” The bank’s equilibrium estimate has edged up to 1.3920,…

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Baig says that if the Bank of Canada decides that the impacts on unemployment and GDP growth are more severe than the pressure on inflation, they may cut rates and that would signal a drop in CAD. He notes, though, that the BoC has made no noise to that effect so far. He also notes, however, that the significant investments by the Federal government in realigning Canadian trade, ports, and infrastructure away from US-reliance, could be supportive for CAD and ultimately mean the Canadian dollar rises against the USD. Moreover, if the trade war means a revision in the favourable…

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