Author: Robert Jessi

Canada’s July rose 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June, though was more moderate at 2.0% ahead of Wednesday’s deadline for 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian exports to the US – what are the implications for ?USD/CAD Key TakeawaysCanada’s July CPI rose 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June, though median CPI was more moderate at 2.0%. The US has threatened 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports, raising risks ahead of Wednesday’s deadline. USD/CAD’s medium-term bias continues to point lower, so traders will likely look to sell any short-term rallies After a week of North American traders focusing…

Gold is retreating after hitting three-day highs just below $4,450 early Tuesday, and is flirting with $4,400 as of writing.Gold awaits Wednesday’s FOMC MinutesGold bulls take a breather following two consecutive days of gains, assessing the impact of the truce lapse between the United States (US) and Iran on Oil prices and US Treasury bond yields.US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is not interested in renewing the expiring agreement with Iran, per Bloomberg. He continued to reinforce the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as a key leverage over Iran, while insisting that the US retained…

Canadian Dollar momentum is building as yield spreads narrow and crowded short-CAD positions come under pressure, with Scotiabank warning USD/CAD could extend its fall towards 1.3817. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate closed Friday around 1.3875 after the Canadian currency finally pushed through an area that had frustrated several earlier attempts at appreciation. USD/CAD fell 0.38% on Friday and almost 1% over August so far, leaving the pair close to its lowest level of the month. Foreign exchange analysts at Scotiabank thinks there may be more to this move than a brief burst of commodity-currency strength. The…

USD/CAD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3870 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting central bank expectations.US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June, coming in below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 5.0% in July compared to 6.8% in the previous month.Traders have reduced their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following a slew of softer US data, including…

Each July, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) recalculates how much eligible Canadian families will receive in CCB payments, based on your adjusted family net income from the previous year. In July 2026, with the new benefit year kicking in, the CCB was adjusted to inflation and grew by 2%, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Usually payments go out on the 20th day of each month, unless a weekend or stat holiday falls on that day. Next month’s instalment will hit bank accounts a day early on September 19. What are 2026’s upcoming Canada Child Benefit payments dates? January…

Investing.com — The U.S. dollar on Monday recovered after earlier sliding to its lowest level in over two months, but remained in negative territory amid reduced expectations for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Oil prices extended weekly gains, keeping inflation jitters on the table. At 16:11 ET (20:11 GMT), the , which track the greenback against a basket of six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 99.58. It had hit a session low at 99.29 earlier, its lowest since June 2. Fed minutes to provide more interest rate cues Currency market participants are coming off a key week in which…

 Canadian monetary policy is currently characterized by a deliberate pause, with the Bank of Canada maintaining its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 as it navigates a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Policymakers assess that the current stance is appropriately calibrated to balance competing forces within the economy, including a weaker growth environment evidenced by a modest contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and persistent excess supply, alongside inflation dynamics in which headline inflation has been temporarily elevated by energy prices while underlying core measures remain contained in their trend.As illustrated in Figure 1, Canadian bond markets continue…

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen describes Washington’s emerging carrot-and-stick approach to artificial intelligence, extending its Pax Silica framework. The US aims to force countries to choose between its AI (Artificial intelligence) coalition and China’s rival alliance, potentially cutting off access to US AI technologies. The report notes concerns over Kazakhstan’s dual participation and frames gross domestic compute as a new pillar of strategic autonomy.US-China AI blocs and tech alignment”Washington is preparing a similar carrot-and-stick approach in the field of artificial intelligence. The US wants to force countries to pick a side in the AI-race with China. Any country…

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH is trading near recent lows as Chinese policymakers allow a measured pace of Renminbi (RMB) appreciation while resisting an overly rapid move via a sizeable fixing premium. Weaker July credit data reinforce domestic-demand concerns, but exporter conversions, fixing bias and a softer US Dollar (USD) are seen as offsets, with support at 6.74/6.72 and resistance near 6.7580/6.7730.RMB near strongest levels since early 2023″RMB continue to trade near its strongest levels since early 2023. Friday’s USD/CNY fixing of 6.7878 was the lowest since Feb 2023 but was still around 460pips higher…

Canadian Dollar momentum is building as yield spreads narrow and crowded short-CAD positions come under pressure, with Scotiabank warning USD/CAD could extend its fall towards 1.3817. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate closed Friday around 1.3875 after the Canadian currency finally pushed through an area that had frustrated several earlier attempts at appreciation. USD/CAD fell 0.38% on Friday and almost 1% over August so far, leaving the pair close to its lowest level of the month. Foreign exchange analysts at Scotiabank thinks there may be more to this move than a brief burst of commodity-currency strength. The…