Author: Robert Jessi

The Canadian dollar will remain the pressure-relief valve for secular productivity challenges, trade-related uncertainty, and the prospect that the Bank of Canada will be compelled to cut rates before year-end as the Fed either remains on hold or succumbs to market pressure to tighten policy. As this plays out at the two countries’ central banks, already deep negative interest rate spreads will move deeper into negative terrain. As all three challenges persist, if not intensify, the Canadian dollar will face unrelenting pressure, with C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar (62.5 U.S. cents) not out of reach. As we have seen time…

Box 1: The outlook for investment and production in the oil and gas sector has improved Between May 7 and 21, 2026, Bank of Canada staff held consultations in Calgary with industry leaders and experts from across the oil and gas sector, including producers, pipeline operators, energy service providers and analysts. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged US$101 per barrel over the consultation period, compared with an average of US$65 per barrel between February 1 and 27, 2026, before the onset of the war in the Middle East. Firms expect WTI prices to soften in line with financial markets’ expectations for…

On the radarRomania, Hungary and Slovakia will release retail sales in May (at 8 AM CET, 8.30 and 9 AM CET respectively).Hungary will publish industrial output growth in May, at the top of retail sales.Economic developmentsThe EU27 and Eurozone series followed a very similar trajectory since 2015, with the Eurozone consistently recording slightly higher values than the EU average. Both indicators remained broadly stable between 2015 and 2019, before surging sharply during the pandemic period, reaching a peak in 2020. After a gradual saving rates have stabilized at levels above the pre-pandemic average. In recent years, saving rate has been roughly…

Wall Street surges, oil flat as chip stock rally continues

USD The US dollar begins the week on the back foot after a disappointing June payrolls release late last week triggered a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. Markets had entered July focused on the Fed’s relatively hawkish June projections but weaker labour-market data prompted investors to reduce the probability of another near-term rate increase. As a result, the dollar surrendered gains across G10, with pushing back above 1.14 and moving towards 1.34. The move was consistent with our recent reactive pieces, which highlighted that USD resilience remained highly dependent on continued evidence of labour-market strength and sticky inflation. Today’s…

As the king among safe havens, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is supposed to benefit from geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war. This time, it didn’t.The Swissie is nearly 6% below January’s peak against the US Dollar (USD) after a sharp decline that came along with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Swiss currency has recovered somewhat in the past week, but its relatively subdued performance during one of the major recent geopolitical shocks has left questions over why the Franc failed to behave like a traditional safe-haven. What happened? The conflict in the…

The Canadian dollar will remain the pressure-relief valve for secular productivity challenges, trade-related uncertainty, and the prospect that the Bank of Canada will be compelled to cut rates before year-end as the Fed either remains on hold or succumbs to market pressure to tighten policy. As this plays out at the two countries’ central banks, already deep negative interest rate spreads will move deeper into negative terrain. As all three challenges persist, if not intensify, the Canadian dollar will face unrelenting pressure, with C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar (62.5 U.S. cents) not out of reach. As we have seen time…

 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including Russia, agreed to raise their output targets by 188,000 barrels a day starting in August.This is in addition to the similar increases made for June and July.“With the August increase now decided, they will have fully unwound the 2023 cut if they make one more hike of around the same size for September at ​their next meeting on August 2,” per Reuters.

Like many newcomers, I spent my first few months trying to make sense of a financial system that felt both reassuring and unfamiliar. Some of the discoveries were significant. I still remember the first time we received the Canada Child Benefit, because having grown up and spent much of my adult life in countries without that kind of support, I was genuinely moved.  It was not just the money, but what the money represented. For the first time, I felt that if life threw us an unexpected challenge, there were systems designed to help us get back on our feet.…

Gold prices rise as cooling rate hike bets hit dollar