Author: Robert Jessi

The Canadian dollar will remain the pressure-relief valve for secular productivity challenges, trade-related uncertainty, and the prospect that the Bank of Canada will be compelled to cut rates before year-end as the Fed either remains on hold or succumbs to market pressure to tighten policy. As this plays out at the two countries’ central banks, already deep negative interest rate spreads will move deeper into negative terrain. As all three challenges persist, if not intensify, the Canadian dollar will face unrelenting pressure, with C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar (62.5 U.S. cents) not out of reach. As we have seen time…

Stocks ease despite upbeat Samsung forecast, yen languishes

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices heated up to the highest level in three years, likely keeping the central bank holding interest rates steady with an eye toward hiking if inflation doesn’t dissipate. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 4.1% in May, in line with expectations, and up from 3.8% in April. Month over month, inflation rose to 0.4%, a tenth of a percentage point less than expectations and the same level as April. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the way the Fed prefers to assess the inflation gauge, “core” PCE rose to 3.4%, in line with…

GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive…

The dollar changed hands near ¥162 into Monday, with grinding at the top of its range as the yen sat at 40-year lows against the greenback. The pair rose about 0.36% on the day to around 161.95, giving back roughly half of the gains the yen had clawed out on July 2 — a move that captures the whole dynamic. The yen weakened toward 162 per dollar because Tokyo warned of intervention but didn’t act, and the market keeps testing how much weakness Japan will tolerate. The scale of the yen’s decline is historic. USD/JPY reached an all-time high near…

The Canadian dollar will remain the pressure-relief valve for secular productivity challenges, trade-related uncertainty, and the prospect that the Bank of Canada will be compelled to cut rates before year-end as the Fed either remains on hold or succumbs to market pressure to tighten policy. As this plays out at the two countries’ central banks, already deep negative interest rate spreads will move deeper into negative terrain. As all three challenges persist, if not intensify, the Canadian dollar will face unrelenting pressure, with C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar (62.5 U.S. cents) not out of reach. As we have seen time…

Box 1: The outlook for investment and production in the oil and gas sector has improved Between May 7 and 21, 2026, Bank of Canada staff held consultations in Calgary with industry leaders and experts from across the oil and gas sector, including producers, pipeline operators, energy service providers and analysts. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged US$101 per barrel over the consultation period, compared with an average of US$65 per barrel between February 1 and 27, 2026, before the onset of the war in the Middle East. Firms expect WTI prices to soften in line with financial markets’ expectations for…

On the radarRomania, Hungary and Slovakia will release retail sales in May (at 8 AM CET, 8.30 and 9 AM CET respectively).Hungary will publish industrial output growth in May, at the top of retail sales.Economic developmentsThe EU27 and Eurozone series followed a very similar trajectory since 2015, with the Eurozone consistently recording slightly higher values than the EU average. Both indicators remained broadly stable between 2015 and 2019, before surging sharply during the pandemic period, reaching a peak in 2020. After a gradual saving rates have stabilized at levels above the pre-pandemic average. In recent years, saving rate has been roughly…

Wall Street surges, oil flat as chip stock rally continues

USD The US dollar begins the week on the back foot after a disappointing June payrolls release late last week triggered a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. Markets had entered July focused on the Fed’s relatively hawkish June projections but weaker labour-market data prompted investors to reduce the probability of another near-term rate increase. As a result, the dollar surrendered gains across G10, with pushing back above 1.14 and moving towards 1.34. The move was consistent with our recent reactive pieces, which highlighted that USD resilience remained highly dependent on continued evidence of labour-market strength and sticky inflation. Today’s…