Author: Robert Jessi

The global economic landscape has been fixated on the Middle East since the US-Iran war started in late February, reacting to significant changes in crude Oil prices and assessing how they could influence inflation dynamics and growth outlook. Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), made it clear that the conflict raised upside inflation risks, forcing them to move away from policy-easing intentions and reprioritizing price stability. But as the conflict potentially moves toward a resolution and Oil prices decline, another factor could complicate the inflation outlook: the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment boom.Oil prices may fall, but AI could…

Weight loss stock wars: Key metrics to watch in Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk results

 Canadian monetary policy is currently characterized by a deliberate pause, with the Bank of Canada maintaining its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 as it navigates a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Policymakers assess that the current stance is appropriately calibrated to balance competing forces within the economy, including a weaker growth environment evidenced by a modest contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and persistent excess supply, alongside inflation dynamics in which headline inflation has been temporarily elevated by energy prices while underlying core measures remain contained in their trend.As illustrated in Figure 1, Canadian bond markets continue…

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reviews the South African Rand (ZAR) after its earlier appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) stalled with the Iran conflict. He highlights deteriorating terms of trade, rising inflation above the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) new target, and July’s unexpected rate hold. Baur outlines several scenarios for ZAR, stressing that even in positive outcomes, Rand recovery will likely be slow.Rand outlook tied to SARB stance”We consider the July decision not to raise the policy rate to be a mistake. It suggests to the market that inflation trends and the associated risks are not being taken seriously enough.…

The US wanted a stronger yen, not necessarily a weaker dollar.Takeaways Joint US–Japan intervention has turned the yen from a one-way carry trade into a two-sided policy risk. Washington’s role matters more for credibility than size, while Japan still provides the financial firepower. A more hawkish BoJ and the prospect of a September rate hike give intervention a stronger fundamental foundation. Lower oil prices remove a major drag on Japan’s trade position and strengthen the case that the yen is building a durable bottom. Yen Is No Longer a One-Way Bet ( For Now)For years, selling the yen was one…

Analysts at Scotiabank expect renewed pressure on USD/CAD after its July decline, with a break below 1.4000 opening the way towards 1.3981 and the upper 1.39s. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.4015 after falling 1.36% over the month. USD/CAD opened July around 1.4208 and reached a monthly high close to 1.4239 before retreating to a low near 1.3992. The pair remains 2.1% higher for 2026, having traded between approximately 1.3482 and 1.4248 since the start of the year. Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar has benefited from the broader deterioration in US Dollar sentiment following…

AUD/USD depreciates after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair maintains its gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remained resilient, supported by economic developments in China, Australia’s major trading partner.China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June, missing market expectations of 51.5; it continued to signal expansion in manufacturing activity.Aussie inflation surprise seen as fuel-driven but still above RBA targetBNY’s Geoff Yu notes that RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter characterised Australia’s latest CPI print as “a…

U.S. stock futures rise as Trump touts Iran negotiations

Intervention has already delivered a powerful lift for the Aussie and Kiwi. Whether that extends may depend on another round of official action and the Bank of Japan.Asian FX intervention may not be finished yet BOJ surprise hike risk has increased marginally Softer US data adds to dollar pressure and break to fresh highs AUD/USD and NZD/USD ripped higher on Friday, fuelled by broad-based US dollar weakness following apparent coordinated intervention from Asian foreign exchange authorities, softer-than-expected US economic data and a surge in risk appetite after strong earnings from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).Coordinated Intervention Rattles the US DollarThe…

The week in one sentence: EUR and JPY selling pushed positioning toward fresh bearish extremes, WTI improved through short covering despite a sharp price decline, and VIX shorts retreated as volatility moved higher.FX: Bearish extremes deepenThe Euro (EUR) delivered the week’s clearest bearish signal. Speculators cut net positioning by 31,109 contracts, the sharpest decline since June, extending the selloff into a second week. The net short reached 72,447 contracts and is now below the 1st historical percentile. In addition, EUR/USD fell modestly, so the price continued to confirm the flow rather than resist an increasingly extreme position.The Japanese Yen (JPY)…