Author: Robert Jessi

We cannot yet say with certainty that this is the early stage of a mini yen-funded carry unwind, but when the price action starts walking like a duck, it usually pays to assume there may be feathers somewhere nearby. Takeaways  • The U.S. Treasury has reportedly told banks through the New York Fed to prepare for possible yen intervention. • That raises the prospect of coordinated U.S.–Japanese action rather than another isolated strike from Tokyo. • The immediate target is , but the larger risk sits in the vast pool of trades financed with cheap yen. • A full carry…

Analysts at Scotiabank expect renewed pressure on USD/CAD after its July decline, with a break below 1.4000 opening the way towards 1.3981 and the upper 1.39s. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.4015 after falling 1.36% over the month. USD/CAD opened July around 1.4208 and reached a monthly high close to 1.4239 before retreating to a low near 1.3992. The pair remains 2.1% higher for 2026, having traded between approximately 1.3482 and 1.4248 since the start of the year. Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar has benefited from the broader deterioration in US Dollar sentiment following…

The Canadian dollar dipped below 71 United States cents on Friday morning as crude oil prices underwent a correction.      The loonie was at US$0.7085 or US$1=C$1.4114 as of 8:34 a.m. CDT, compared to Thursday’s close of US$0.7101 or US$1=C$1.4083. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.02 of a point at 101.42.      The U.S. continued its attacks on Iran as the conflict between the two countries threatens to expand into the Red Sea. Brent crude oil lost US$2.93 at US$97.76/barrel after surpassing the US$100/barrel mark on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate dropped US$2.25 at US$89.94/barrel.      The TSX/S&P Composite Index…

Kuwait intercepts Iranian drones as Trump weighs fresh strikes

 Canadian monetary policy is currently characterized by a deliberate pause, with the Bank of Canada maintaining its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 as it navigates a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Policymakers assess that the current stance is appropriately calibrated to balance competing forces within the economy, including a weaker growth environment evidenced by a modest contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and persistent excess supply, alongside inflation dynamics in which headline inflation has been temporarily elevated by energy prices while underlying core measures remain contained in their trend.As illustrated in Figure 1, Canadian bond markets continue…

The Kiwi Dollar extends its three-day rally, climbing above 0.5850 and is poised to challenge 0.5900 amid improving risk appetite and broad US Dollar weakness. The clearance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the bullish trend, as traders eye the May monthly high at 0.5995.NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe daily chart shows that market structure is becoming more constructive, indicating further upside in the NZD/USD pair. After surpassing the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 0.5821/23, the pair is poised to hurdle the 0.5900 figure.Momentum has clearly shifted bullish. The Relative Strength…

The week that wasThe US Dollar (USD) has traded mostly lower throughout the week, briefly testing six-week lows despite prevailing risk aversion, which has been driven by unabated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dipped to the 99.90 zone for the first time since mid-June, just to recover some ground afterward toward the end of the North American session.This week’s price action has mainly reflected renewed tensions between the US and Iran and their impact on the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, news that the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) has intervened in the…

Summary:USD/CAD traded near 1.4100 on Tuesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Falling crude oil prices continued to limit gains for the Canadian dollar despite a softer US dollar. Markets are also monitoring US-Iran negotiations, which have weighed on oil prices and the loonie’s outlook. The USD/CAD pair edged lower on Tuesday, trading around 1.4100, as investors avoided taking aggressive positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. While the US dollar softened slightly after recent gains, the Canadian dollar’s upside remained constrained by weaker crude oil prices, leaving the currency pair close to its highest levels of the…

Canada’s financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system, and a more turbulent global environment poses risks to financial stability.

The USD/CAD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Friday and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to the lowest level since June 17, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade above the 1.4000 psychological mark, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction.As investors look past Thursday’s unimpressive US macro data, the US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction amid prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and offers some support to the USD/CAD pair. The Advance US GDP report showed moderating economic growth in the second…