Author: Robert Jessi

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Cheif finance content and platform manager.

The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision turns on the cost of waiting: August inflation at 3.0% gives policymakers a reason to demand more evidence before easing, while September’s weakening labour indicators make delay harder to defend. With the policy rate anchored at 2.25%, the causal question is whether the next releases show inflation pressure fading quickly enough to justify responding to employment weakness.No outcome probabilities are supplied, so the evidence cannot establish whether a hold or a cut leads the market. It does support a narrower analysis of the assumptions behind those scenarios and the releases capable of changing…

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USD The dollar ended Monday’s holiday-thinned session firmer, seeing the touch its highest level since April 2025. With US cash Treasuries shut for Columbus Day, crude did the driving. initially dipped toward $103 overnight on an unconfirmed Trump post about a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire”, then reversed to close above $106, its highest since mid-September, after fresh Houthi missile attacks on Riyadh, and another tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz. Cleveland Fed President Hammack added to the bid, warning of early signs that inflation expectations are drifting and that more restraint is needed, leaving a December hike fully priced. As…

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Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses how the US Dollar (USD) reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s move away from traditional forward guidance. She notes that initial unease gave way to a stronger Dollar as rate expectations rose, arguing that central bank credibility and commitment to its inflation mandate matter more than the specific communication toolkit used.Fed guidance, credibility and Dollar”Against this backdrop, it is understandable that markets reacted uneasily over the summer when Warsh put his words into practice and deliberately refrained from providing clear guidance on the future path of interest rates. The dollar came under pressure as…

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The Canadian Dollar’s Recovery Depends on More Than the Next BoC Decision Canada’s jobs slump weakens the case for an early rate rise, while ING says the Canadian Dollar needs calmer bond markets to recover against the US Dollar. Canada’s loss of 68,000 jobs in September has challenged expectations of an early interest-rate increase, leaving the Canadian Dollar with less domestic support against a US currency that ING expects to remain firm. Friday’s labour-force report put unemployment at 6.5%, while USD/CAD ended the session near 1.4256, up 0.22% on the day. Latest-Exchange Rates: Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.42559 (+0.22%)…

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Good evening, this is Sengyo-kun. On the night of Friday, October 9th, it is important to look at Canadian employment and US consumer sentiment by separating them in the order they are released. Do not assume that the direction moved by the first indicator will continue as a trend until the weekend. Tonight, I want to make this single point the axis of my judgment.The target period is from 18:00 on October 9, 2026, until the early morning of Saturday, October 10. All times are in Japan Standard Time. Since tonight’s major indicators have not been released at the time…

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Credit Canada, a non-profit credit counselling organization, partnered with Harris Poll Canada to survey more than 1,500 Canadians about their housing costs, budgets, and financial awareness. We spoke with Credit Canada CEO Bruce Sellery about what the results reveal about how Canadians are managing one of their biggest household expenses. 68% of Canadians don’t know how much they spend on housing One of the poll’s biggest findings was that two in three people (68%) don’t know how much of their monthly budget goes toward shelter costs. These include a mortgage, rent, condo fees, property taxes, and utilities. You’re 2 minutes…

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The Euro extends its losses against the US Dollar on Monday, even falling below the psychological 1.1200 level as sellers step in following hawkish comments from a Fed policymaker and growing geopolitical concerns on two fronts: the US-Iran war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1155, down 0.40%.EUR/USD tumbles towards 1.1150 as geopolitical tensions reinforce US inflation concernsThe Columbus Day holiday kept the markets quiet, with the cash markets closed. But over-the-weekend news, with US President Trump announcing a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war on energy facilities, was cheered by investors, who later scrambled to buy Oil…

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The old FX cliché still works because it is exactly what the market is trading: the dollar remains the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basketTakeaways• The dollar is holding above 102 even as some Fed premium comes out, which tells you this is increasingly a relative-value trade rather than a simple rates chase. • CPI does not need to force an October hike to keep USD supported; it only needs to stop the market from confidently pricing the end of tightening. • EUR remains the soft spot, with French fiscal stress, weaker carry and energy exposure still leaning against…

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