Author: Robert Jessi

July marked a new benefit year in Canada and benefit amounts were adjusted by 2% based on the Consumer Price Index. Each year, you must file your personal Income Tax and Benefit Return and fill out the ON-BEN Application form that’s included in the tax return package. Based on your return, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) determines whether you’re eligible for the OTB and lets you know if you’ll receive the payment. “If you turn 18 before June 2027, you should apply and file your tax return to be considered for the Ontario Trillium Benefit,” states the province’s website. “For…

Warsh wants a Fed that plays a smaller role in markets

 Canadian monetary policy is currently characterized by a deliberate pause, with the Bank of Canada maintaining its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 as it navigates a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Policymakers assess that the current stance is appropriately calibrated to balance competing forces within the economy, including a weaker growth environment evidenced by a modest contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and persistent excess supply, alongside inflation dynamics in which headline inflation has been temporarily elevated by energy prices while underlying core measures remain contained in their trend.As illustrated in Figure 1, Canadian bond markets continue…

A US official said on Friday that there is progress in Oman-Iran talks and that a deal could be signed soon, according to Reuters. Once the deal is announced, this would restore commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would lift the blockade. Meanwhile, another official told ABC News that a temporary route was discussed and that it would be limited to 60 days. The official warned that nothing is final until publicly announced, and another source said that the Trump administration wants total freedom of commercial navigation through the Strait, without Iranian tolls or any arrangement requiring…

Sterling traded $1.3469 Thursday, flat on the session, after printing 1.34607 Wednesday and touching two-day highs past 1.3480. That leaves the pair sitting almost exactly in the centre of a range it has occupied for roughly fifteen months, and the price action of the last nine sessions traces the whole problem. based near 1.3280 on July 28, then rallied hard into the central bank decisions and printed a swing high close to 1.3520 across July 31 and August 1. Resistance near 1.3480 rejected it. The pair pulled back to the 1.3420-to-1.3430 area — well above the late-July base — then…

Higher oil prices no longer offer the Canadian Dollar reliable support, with housing stress, weak growth and rate differentials now driving CAD. Canada’s Dollar used to have a fairly simple story. Oil went up, and the currency usually followed. That relationship has weakened considerably. MRB Partners says the Canadian Dollar’s historical sensitivity to crude oil has “diminished materially over the past decade”, leaving domestic housing, credit and growth risks with far more influence over the currency. “Historically, the CAD would have been a go-to currency on the back of higher oil prices,” MRB said, “but its historical beta to crude…

The week that wasThe geopolitical landscape has remained the almost exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the global markets this week.Against that backdrop, the US Dollar (USD) has been suffering from rising optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement that would not only end the current crisis but also reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of such a scenario has re-emerged following news that US President Donald Trump called off an imminent attack on Iran over the last weekend, setting free speculations that a deal might be just around the corner… again, and again, and again.Then, Federal Reserve (Fed)…

What happens to stocks when the Fed starts hiking? Barclays weighs in

Picture two Japanese savers 10 years ago. Both had money set aside. One left it in yen, while the other bought gold and forgot about it. Ten years later, the gold holdings are up 375%. The precious metal didn’t do anything remarkable. Over the same decade, rose 205%. Same metal, same time period. The extra 170 percentage points the Japanese saver picked up came from one place, and it wasn’t the gold. It came from the yen falling apart underneath everyone who held it. That’s the whole lesson, and last week, the world got a look at what happens when…

The week in one sentence: a historic Yen short unwind led to a broader recovery in FX positioning, while Gold strengthened with price confirmation, and renewed selling in WTI and Coffee reinforced commodity weakness.