Author: Robert Jessi

Wall Street surges, oil flat as chip stock rally continues

USD The US dollar begins the week on the back foot after a disappointing June payrolls release late last week triggered a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. Markets had entered July focused on the Fed’s relatively hawkish June projections but weaker labour-market data prompted investors to reduce the probability of another near-term rate increase. As a result, the dollar surrendered gains across G10, with pushing back above 1.14 and moving towards 1.34. The move was consistent with our recent reactive pieces, which highlighted that USD resilience remained highly dependent on continued evidence of labour-market strength and sticky inflation. Today’s…

As the king among safe havens, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is supposed to benefit from geopolitical shocks such as the Iran war. This time, it didn’t.The Swissie is nearly 6% below January’s peak against the US Dollar (USD) after a sharp decline that came along with the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Swiss currency has recovered somewhat in the past week, but its relatively subdued performance during one of the major recent geopolitical shocks has left questions over why the Franc failed to behave like a traditional safe-haven. What happened? The conflict in the…

The Canadian dollar will remain the pressure-relief valve for secular productivity challenges, trade-related uncertainty, and the prospect that the Bank of Canada will be compelled to cut rates before year-end as the Fed either remains on hold or succumbs to market pressure to tighten policy. As this plays out at the two countries’ central banks, already deep negative interest rate spreads will move deeper into negative terrain. As all three challenges persist, if not intensify, the Canadian dollar will face unrelenting pressure, with C$1.60 to the U.S. dollar (62.5 U.S. cents) not out of reach. As we have seen time…

 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including Russia, agreed to raise their output targets by 188,000 barrels a day starting in August.This is in addition to the similar increases made for June and July.“With the August increase now decided, they will have fully unwound the 2023 cut if they make one more hike of around the same size for September at ​their next meeting on August 2,” per Reuters.

Like many newcomers, I spent my first few months trying to make sense of a financial system that felt both reassuring and unfamiliar. Some of the discoveries were significant. I still remember the first time we received the Canada Child Benefit, because having grown up and spent much of my adult life in countries without that kind of support, I was genuinely moved.  It was not just the money, but what the money represented. For the first time, I felt that if life threw us an unexpected challenge, there were systems designed to help us get back on our feet.…

Gold prices rise as cooling rate hike bets hit dollar

USD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 161.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is caught in a high-stakes tug-of-war, buckling under surging import costs even as 10-year JGB yields hit a fresh 30-year high of 2.79%. This deep market divide has traders on high alert for immediate verbal intervention from Tokyo.The USD/JPY pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, buoyed by market expectations of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes later this year. This comes despite easing global inflation concerns, which have been helped by oil flows normalizing…

Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs. The bank expects the pair to consolidate in a defined range rather than trend strongly in the near term.Range-bound outlook for USD/SGD”Looking ahead, the manufacturing outlook remains constructive.””We will get the advance Q2 GDP report in the next week or so.””It is expected to post a strong performance and even exceed Q1’s 6% yoy expansion, supported by a strong manufacturing sector and continued firm…

The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding USMCA trade negotiations kept the Canadian Dollar subdued while Sterling awaited comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8827, little changed on the day. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.88368 (+0.06%)Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.61838 (-0.2%)Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.42311 (+0.16%) DAILY RECAP: The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggled to attract support on Wednesday amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the future of the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade. Representatives…