Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports that the Bank of Korea (BoK) delivered a second consecutive 25 bp hike to 3.0% and kept a tightening bias, supporting KRW after its sharp appreciation since June. The bank expects a near-term pause but sees scope for another hike to 3.25% if growth and core inflation stay firm, with USD/KRW likely consolidating in a 1,360–1,400 range.
Won strength seen consolidating after rally
“Looking ahead, BoK maintained a tightening bias, although the pace of further hikes is likely to slow following the cumulative 50bp of tightening since July.”
“The results showed that of the 21 dots, 10 are at 3.25%, six at 3.50% and five at 3.00%, with Governor Shin noting that the median implies one additional 25bp hike over the next six months.”
“We therefore expect the BoK to pause at the next meeting to assess the impact of the back-to-back hikes, while retaining scope to raise the Base Rate to 3.25% thereafter if growth and underlying inflation remain firm.”
“For KRW, the decision and continued tightening bias are supportive, although monetary policy is unlikely to be the primary driver after the currency’s recent sharp appreciation. USD/KRW fell from 1,385 to around 1,378 following the decision, compared with above 1,560 in June.”
” A large external surplus, reduced financial-account outflows, and a hawkish BoK are positives for KRW. However, given the magnitude of the recent move, with KRW gaining 12% vs USD since the end of June, further appreciation is likely to be more gradual. We look for consolidation in USD/KRW between 1,360-1,400 in the near term.”
“Governor Shin noted that despite the recent rally, KRW remains weak relative to historical levels and that there is scope for further appreciation, with pre-emptive tightening helping to support currency stability. BoK expects South Korea’s current-account surplus to reach a record USD450bn in 2026, driven by exceptionally strong semiconductor exports.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
