Calmer markets are allowing several currencies to take a breather against the strong dollar. If sentiment keeps stabilising from here, data and Fedspeak should take over as primary drivers. Today, we expect decent US spending figures, but a muted . Our baseline view is that won’t break below 1.130
USD: Core PCE May Come In Cooler Than Expected
The dollar seems to have halted its run on some risk sentiment stabilisation, but it’s still early to rule out another leg higher in the greenback. Any new signs of AI jitters could be the catalyst for more safe-haven-related dollar demand.
At the same time, our baseline view remains that we are not far from the peak in this dollar rally. This risk correction has shaved around 7bp off the Fed pricing for December, which is now 35bp. It’s a potential sign that the bar for a dovish repricing may not be that high. Our economists still expect no hikes by the this year, which backs our bearish USD call for 2H.
Today, the US data calendar picks up again. Personal income figures for May are expected to come in at a robust 0.6% on the back of good retail sales data. However, the savings rate may keep dropping closer to all-time lows – a sign of growing stress for some consumers.
The other main release is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the deflator. Expectations are for 0.3% MoM, but we see risks tilted to a 0.2% print. That wouldn’t be enough to sustainably invert the USD’s momentum, but it could help build some resistance to more aggressive hawkish repricing in the swap curve.
Fedspeak also remains quite closely watched. Today, Bowman and Williams are due to speak. The former is arguably the most dovish FOMC member after Miran’s departure, and Williams is also a dovish-leaning voice. We could hear some pushback against aggressive expectations as they probably belong to the half of FOMC members who forecasted no hikes this year.
EUR: Looking for Firmer Ground
EUR/USD is stabilising after a long sell-off, with AI-related sentiment now being the primary driver of the pair. Further stabilisation in equities could see a slow return to 1.140.
Domestically, the printed above consensus yesterday, offsetting Tuesday’s poor PMIs, but markets have continued to gradually scale back some ECB easing. This was in line with the move in the USD curve and a spillover from the equity turmoil, as ECB speakers have so far offered a more hawkish tone relative to Lagarde’s Monday speech.
Our baseline view is that EUR/USD won’t break below 1.130, but that is contingent on risk sentiment continuing to stabilise.
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