Analysts at Scotiabank expect renewed pressure on USD/CAD after its July decline, with a break below 1.4000 opening the way towards 1.3981 and the upper 1.39s.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.4015 after falling 1.36% over the month.
USD/CAD opened July around 1.4208 and reached a monthly high close to 1.4239 before retreating to a low near 1.3992. The pair remains 2.1% higher for 2026, having traded between approximately 1.3482 and 1.4248 since the start of the year.
Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar has benefited from the broader deterioration in US Dollar sentiment following the Federal Reserve meeting, although progress through the 1.4000 area has so far proved difficult.
Short-term US-Canada interest-rate spreads narrowed modestly after the FOMC decision, providing some support for the Loonie. The bank cautions, however, that the remaining yield gap is still wide enough to restrain a more substantial Canadian Dollar advance.
The latest weekly close may be more significant. Scotiabank believes the move suggests that the rebound in USD/CAD from its mid-July low is beginning to reverse.
The pair has moved decisively below its 40-day moving average, which Scotiabank places at 1.4104. The bank now expects minor recoveries towards 1.4100 to encounter firm resistance.
USD/CAD tested the 1.4000 region during the final sessions of July but failed to reach the 38.2% retracement of the May-June rally at 1.3981.
According to Scotiabank, “a low close on the week suggests the USD rebound from mid-July is reversing and more pressure is likely on the upper 1.39s in the days ahead.”
The one-month chart supports the softer technical picture. USD/CAD has fallen below its declining 20-day moving average and closed close to the bottom of July’s range.
The broader year-to-date chart is less conclusive. The pair remains above its rising 50-day average and is still well above the January low, reflecting the scale of the Dollar rally during May and June.
Canada’s domestic data provide the next potential catalyst. May industry-level GDP is expected to rise 0.2% on the month and 1.4% from a year earlier. A stronger reading could help the Canadian Dollar force a clearer break below 1.4000.
Scotiabank’s short-term assessment is bearish, with 1.3981 marking the immediate downside target and the upper 1.39s likely to come under further pressure. Resistance around 1.4100 should now limit any near-term USD recovery.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.37% | -1.17% | -3.91% | -0.57% | -0.61% | -1.66% | -1.35% | |
| EUR | +1.39% | +0.21% | -2.57% | +0.82% | +0.78% | -0.29% | +0.03% | |
| GBP | +1.18% | -0.21% | -2.77% | +0.61% | +0.57% | -0.50% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | +4.07% | +2.64% | +2.85% | +3.47% | +3.43% | +2.34% | +2.66% | |
| CAD | +0.57% | -0.81% | -0.60% | -3.36% | -0.04% | -1.10% | -0.78% | |
| AUD | +0.61% | -0.77% | -0.56% | -3.32% | +0.04% | -1.06% | -0.74% | |
| NZD | +1.69% | +0.29% | +0.50% | -2.28% | +1.11% | +1.07% | +0.32% | |
| CHF | +1.37% | -0.03% | +0.18% | -2.59% | +0.79% | +0.75% | -0.32% |
The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Canadian Dollar recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (01/08/2026 12:20 UTC) and daily close on 25/07/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
