Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen describes Washington’s emerging carrot-and-stick approach to artificial intelligence, extending its Pax Silica framework. The US aims to force countries to choose between its AI (Artificial intelligence) coalition and China’s rival alliance, potentially cutting off access to US AI technologies. The report notes concerns over Kazakhstan’s dual participation and frames gross domestic compute as a new pillar of strategic autonomy.
US-China AI blocs and tech alignment
“Washington is preparing a similar carrot-and-stick approach in the field of artificial intelligence. The US wants to force countries to pick a side in the AI-race with China. Any country that signs a deal with Beijing could be cut off from the US’ AI coalition.”
“The draft policy is an extension of the Pax Silica agreement, which was designed to improve the US’ access to critical resources and to strengthen supply lines for semiconductors.”
“Various countries have already joined the US agreement, which is not binding. China has since launched a rival alliance, causing Kazakhstan to effectively be a signatory to both frameworks.”
“That’s a concern for the US, primarily because the country has a cache of critical minerals. But Washington also wants to prevent that its rivals get access to its frontier AI models and research.”
“So, the Trump administration may soon send out letters telling its allies to pledge allegiance to the flag – or be cut off from US technologies. It’s a reminder that gross domestic compute is becoming an increasingly important element of strategic autonomy and the power a country can project on the global stage.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
